Electoral Imbalance in the AJK Assembly — Time to Restore Democratic Equality. A Formula for Equal Representation in the Azad Jammu and Kashmir Assembly — A Fair Solution for Refugee Constituencies. By Sardar Aftab Khan

 Electoral Imbalance in the AJK Assembly — Time to Restore Democratic Equality.

A Formula for Equal Representation in the Azad Jammu and Kashmir Assembly — A Fair Solution for Refugee Constituencies.

By Sardar Aftab Khan

 In the part of the State of Jammu and Kashmir where democratic aspirations run deep, the current structure of the Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK) Legislative Assembly reveals a troubling imbalance. The constituencies reserved for refugees from Jammu and Kashmir residing in Pakistan, although historically significant, now result in members of the Assembly wielding disproportionate legislative and governing power compared to those elected from AJK’s resident population. This imbalance calls for urgent electoral reform.

 A Data-Driven Inequality

 The basic principle of democracy is simple: every vote should carry equal value and weight. But the current electoral system and constituency allocations for the AJK Assembly do not fully reflect this principle.

 In the AJK Assembly, 12 seats are reserved for refugees residing in Pakistan — 6 for refugees from the Kashmir Valley living in Pakistan, and 6 for displaced persons from Jammu and those affected by the Mangla Dam project. These 12 seats represent a combined total of 405,034 registered voters. In contrast, 33 seats are allocated to 2,950,129 residents of AJK.

 The numbers reveal a stark imbalance:

 ·       Each MLA from the Kashmir Valley refugee constituencies represents approximately 5,044 voters.

·       Each MLA from the Jammu/Mangla category represents approximately 62,461 voters.

·       Each MLA from the resident AJK constituencies represents approximately 89,397 voters.

 This means that MLAs from the Kashmir Valley refugee constituencies hold 1,672% more representational weight, and MLAs from the Jammu/Mangla category hold 43% more weight than their AJK-resident counterparts. This is not merely about numbers — it is a fundamental flaw and structural distortion in the Assembly that seriously undermines the democratic principle of equal representation.

 

The figures make clear that refugee constituencies — especially those for Kashmir Valley residents — represent far fewer voters per seat. By contrast, resident constituencies in AJK represent many times more voters per seat. The result is that some votes carry far more weight than others. This is not about pitting one community against another, but about ensuring fairness, transparency, and public trust.

 Constitutional Principles and Governance Strain

 The principle of “one person, one vote” is the foundation of representative democracy. When some legislators represent 17 times fewer voters than others, the system fails to uphold that principle. Such inequities dilute the voice of the majority and disproportionately amplify the influence of a minority, distorting the legislative and governance environment.

 Moreover, the governance burden on AJK’s resident MLAs is immense. Representing nearly 90,000 constituents each, they face major challenges in accountability, service delivery, and policy advocacy. Meanwhile, refugee MLAs — representing far smaller populations — can wield disproportionate influence over legislation and resource allocation.

 This imbalance risks undermining public trust, increasing social tension, and weakening the Assembly’s legitimacy. This is why the Jammu Kashmir Joint Awami Action Committee (JKJAAC) has included in its charter of demands the complete abolition of seats reserved for refugees residing in Pakistan — a move that has brought the issue to wide public attention and prompted legislators, legal experts, political leaders, and the general public to offer their views and proposals.

 To provide a dignified and workable solution through meaningful dialogue, I present the following formula.

 A Fair Formula for Reforming Refugee Constituency Allocations

 To restore democratic balance, a proportional representation model must be adopted. A clear and fair formula should be incorporated into the law as follows:

 Seat Allocation Formula:

 J&K Refugees Seats = (Refugee Registered Voters ÷ AJK Registered Voters) x 45

 Key Steps:

 1.    All categories — residents and refugees — must be allocated seats based on the same criterion: number of registered voters.

2.    Seat distribution should be calculated using the Largest Remainder (Hamilton) method, a fair apportionment process used internationally.

3.    To protect refugee representation, guarantee a minimum of five seats until the 2026 general elections, after which the strict proportional formula should apply.

4.    The Delimitation Commission must be legally bound to publish voter statistics, seat calculations, maps, and justifications, and to allow a 30-day public objection period.

 The Numbers in Practice (2022 AJK Election Commission Data):

 AJK Resident Voters: 2,950,129

Refugee Voters: 405,034

Total seats: 45

 Under the formula, refugees would be entitled to approximately 5 seats, and residents to about 40 seats.

 Why Amend the AJK Elections Act?

 Amendments are needed to:

 Section 2 — clarify definitions.

Section 9 — link seat allocation directly to the proportion of registered voters.

Section 16 — make it a legal duty for the Commission to apply the formula.

Section 17 — insert the seat allocation formula.

 Dialogue is the Only Way Forward

 This is not about taking representation away from anyone — it is about ensuring every vote counts equally. Refugee communities must be reassured their voice will remain strong; AJK residents must be confident their votes are equally valued; and policymakers must understand that this reform strengthens the Assembly’s legitimacy.

 Let us work together to establish a system that is fair, transparent, and equal — so that the voices of voters from the mountains of Muzaffarabad and Poonch, the plains of Mirpur and Bhimber, and the Kashmiri refugee communities of Rawalpindi, Lahore, Sialkot, Karachi, and Quetta are all heard equally.

 True democracy is measured not just by the right to vote, but by the weight that the vote carries. AJK must recalibrate its electoral structure to ensure fairness and legitimacy.

 The time for reform is now — not only to correct a numerical imbalance, but to reinforce the democratic integrity of the Assembly.

 About the Author: Sardar Aftab Khan is a constitutional and local governance policy and implementation specialist, as well as a community development professional, with over 35 years of experience working with international agencies, government bodies, development organisations, and the private sector in AJK, Pakistan, the USA, and the UK. He can be reached at Aftab@kdfuk.org